The market
Why Phoenix.
We are not in Phoenix because it is having a good year. We are here because the things that make a metro worth owning for decades are pointed the same direction, and because we know the submarkets well enough to tell a good corner from a bad one three blocks away.
People keep arriving
Maricopa County was the third fastest growing county in the United States in 2024, and has ranked near the top for more than a decade, drawing residents from higher cost western markets. Household formation follows population and housing demand follows household formation. That is the single most durable input in any long-term real estate thesis, and it is the one Phoenix has consistently had.
Demand is national-scale
Phoenix absorbed roughly 21,000 apartment units over the past twelve months, placing it among the top five markets in the country for renter demand. Absorption at that level is not a submarket story or a cycle artifact. It is a metro that needs housing.
The job base diversified
Phoenix was once heavily dependent on construction, tourism and back office employment, which is why it was hit so hard in 2008. Semiconductor and advanced manufacturing investment has since added a high wage layer to the economy, alongside established employment in healthcare, financial services and aerospace. A more diversified job base is a more stable renter base.
Supply runs behind demand
Industry research from the National Multifamily Housing Council and the National Apartment Association puts the metro's need at roughly 165,000 additional apartment homes by 2035. Even in a heavy delivery year the region does not build at that pace, and the current pipeline is contracting rather than expanding.
It is still buildable
Entitlement timelines and land basis in the Phoenix area remain workable compared with the coastal markets people are leaving. That is what allows new construction to pencil here when it does not elsewhere, and it is why our development work is concentrated in this metro.
Where the market is heading
The correction is working itself out on the supply side. Units under construction fell 35 percent year over year in the second quarter of 2026, from roughly 24,700 to 16,000, and completions are projected to fall by close to half across the metro this year. Deliveries are expected to return toward pre-pandemic levels by 2027. Rent growth is the last thing to turn in a cycle like this, which is why the current negative number describes where the market has been rather than where it is going.
Capital markets have already moved ahead of the rent data. Average cap rates compressed 80 basis points over the year to 5.8 percent, and the average price per unit rose 3.6 percent to roughly $267,000. Buyers are underwriting the recovery even while the rent roll still reflects the oversupply.
Where we focus
Within the metro we concentrate on infill locations with real employment access and established neighborhoods, rather than on the outer edge of the delivery wave. Central and north central Phoenix, the Biltmore and Arcadia corridors, and selected urban core submarkets. We are looking for dirt we would be comfortable owning for decades, which is a narrower filter than a metro level thesis.
Current conditions
Working through the supply wave.
The metro absorbed a historic volume of new apartments and is now delivering far fewer of them. Vacancy is falling, rents remain soft, and the construction pipeline has contracted for two straight years. We would rather underwrite the back half of a correction than the front half of a boom.
year over year
year over year
up 50% over the prior year
Phoenix MSA, Q2 2026. Average asking rent $1,536, down 2.2 percent year over year. Sources: Kidder Mathews, Northmarq, Yardi Matrix, Marcus & Millichap, National Multifamily Housing Council.
Bring us a site or a situation.
We are actively reviewing development land, conversion candidates and multifamily communities across the Phoenix metropolitan area. If you are a broker, lender, receiver or owner, reach out directly.